Baltic Timber & Forest Land · Commodities · Baltics
Forestry economist covering Baltic forest land, timber prices, and the regulation that moves both. I value parcels for a living and publish the forward view — with receipts — for buyers, owners, and funds.
68%
directional accuracy
38
resolved
5
open
0.21
brier
“Systematically underconfident — her 60% calls land near 75%. Trust her hedges; her blind spot is underpricing supply shocks.”
Open calls · live
Probability
61%
Deadline
31 MAY 2027
Source
State Land Service transaction registry (VZD)
Transaction volume is up, Scandinavian buyers are back, and standing-timber values support the move. The risk is a rate-driven pause in institutional demand.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 May 2027
anchored · 0x34c8…26b8Probability
54%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Saeima legislative registry
The ministry working group has a draft, but coalition bandwidth is the constraint. Coin-flip with a slight lean — the forestry lobby wants this one.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x31c8…2b71Probability
72%
Deadline
15 JAN 2027
Source
Foreks Baltic timber price index
Construction demand in Sweden is recovering and Baltic harvest volumes are constrained by wet-winter access. Supply tells me the floor is in.
Awaiting source · resolves by 15 Jan 2027
anchored · 0x32c8…29deProbability
••
Deadline
30 JUN 2027
Source
State Land Service transaction registry (VZD)
The one Latvian region where land still trades below timber value — parish-level map inside.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
anchored · 0x37c8…2e97Members see the full call
Probability
••
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Company registry + fund disclosures
Which fund, the mandate size, and what it means for mid-size parcel pricing.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x38c8…2d04Members see the full call
Resolved examples
Probability
64%
Deadline
28 FEB 2026
Source
State Land Service transaction registry (VZD)
Closed at +11.3%. Standing-timber values and the LVM auction premium both pointed here a year early.
Brier 0.13 · logged 21 Jan 2025 · immutable
anchored · 0x35c8…31bdProbability
44%
Deadline
31 DEC 2025
Source
EU Official Journal
I leaned no at 44% — Brussels blinked again. Lesson logged: regulatory delays deserve a higher base rate.
Brier 0.31 · logged 09 Oct 2024 · immutable
anchored · 0x3bc8…1bb3Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.