Valencia Property Insider · Real estate · Spain
Fifteen years brokering and analysing the Valencia and Alicante markets. I read the licence registries, the notarial data, and the council agendas so you don’t have to. I publish what I’d want to know before wiring a deposit.
72%
directional accuracy
47
resolved
5
open
0.194
brier
“Well calibrated in his core 50–80% range — when Carlos says 60%, it happens about 62% of the time.”
Open calls · live
Probability
68%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
DOGV — Generalitat Valenciana official gazette
The Ciutat Vella moratorium is polling well and three more district associations have filed formal pressure campaigns. The council has signalled an ordinance review for autumn.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x23d0…e79eProbability
59%
Deadline
31 MAR 2027
Source
Idealista quarterly rental report
Supply keeps thinning as owners rotate units to mid-term contracts. The counterweight is the new build-to-rent stock arriving in Quatre Carreres.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Mar 2027
anchored · 0x24d0…e60bProbability
66%
Deadline
28 FEB 2027
Source
Spanish notarial statistics (CGN), annual foreign-buyer series
Registry data through February shows the northern-European share accelerating past last year’s pace, and two Düsseldorf brokerages just opened Alicante desks.
Awaiting source · resolves by 28 Feb 2027
anchored · 0x25d0…e478Probability
••
Deadline
30 JUN 2027
Source
Valencia city council ordinance registry
Full district-by-district revocation-risk map with my probability and reasoning.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Jun 2027
anchored · 0x26d0…ef7dMembers see the full call
Probability
••
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Company registry filings + sector press
Which operator, why their financing is wobbling, and what it does to the resale pipeline.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x27d0…edeaMembers see the full call
Resolved examples
Probability
68%
Deadline
30 SEP 2025
Source
DOGV — Generalitat Valenciana official gazette
Called it ten months out: the licence freeze passed committee in June 2025. Subscribers had two quarters of lead time on the resale window.
Brier 0.10 · logged 07 Nov 2024 · immutable
anchored · 0x28d0…ec57Probability
71%
Deadline
30 JUN 2025
Source
Banco de España rental yield series
Wrong — yields held at 5.9%. I underestimated how much new inland supply would keep entry prices in check.
Brier 0.50 · logged 20 Sep 2024 · immutable
anchored · 0x1ad0…dc99Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.