Carlos Ferrer✓ identity verified

Valencia Property Insider

Valencia · Alicante · Costa Blanca

Fifteen years brokering and analysing the Valencia and Alicante markets. I read the licence registries, the notarial data, and the council agendas so you don’t have to. I publish what I’d want to know before wiring a deposit.

  • · Licensed API real-estate agent (Colegio de Valencia)
  • · Former research lead, Valencia property fund
  • · Quoted in Expansión, Las Provincias

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verified since 12 Mar 2025

#1 of 12 in Spanish property

⚠ conflicts disclosed (2)
  • — Owns two rental units in Ruzafa, Valencia
  • — Advises one Valencia-based family office on acquisitions

The record

computed from 52 timestamped forecasts

72%

directional accuracy

0.194

mean brier score

47

resolved · 34 correct

5

open forecasts

Calibration — claimed vs happened

claimed happened
20–50%
0%n=8
50–60%
55%n=11
60–70%
62%n=13
70–80%
80%n=10
80–90%
80%n=5

“Well calibrated in his core 50–80% range — when Carlos says 60%, it happens about 62% of the time.”

Biggest wins, biggest misses.

Both stay on the record forever. Honesty is the product.

Forecast · Spanish property

Correct

Valencia tightens short-term rental licences in Ciutat Vella before Q3 2025

68%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.102

Published2024-11-07 · 09:31 UTC
Resolves by30 Sep 2025
SourceDOGV — Generalitat Valenciana official gazette

Called it ten months out: the licence freeze passed committee in June 2025. Subscribers had two quarters of lead time on the resale window.

Forecast · Spanish property

Correct

Ruzafa median asking prices rise more than 10% YoY by Q1 2026

74%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.068

Published2025-04-15 · 12:02 UTC
Resolves by31 Mar 2026
SourceIdealista district price series

Closed at +12.8% YoY. The licence freeze next door in Ciutat Vella pushed demand straight into Ruzafa, as expected.

Forecast · Spanish property

Missed

Alicante rental yields compress below 5.5% by mid-2025

71%

stated probability

outcome: NO

brier 0.504

Published2024-09-20 · 10:26 UTC
Resolves by30 Jun 2025
SourceBanco de España rental yield series

Wrong — yields held at 5.9%. I underestimated how much new inland supply would keep entry prices in check.

Forecast · Spanish property

Missed

New-build completions in Valencia province exceed 9,000 units in 2025

63%

stated probability

outcome: NO

brier 0.397

Published2025-01-29 · 14:13 UTC
Resolves by31 Jan 2026
SourceMinistry of Housing completion statistics

Came in at 8,200. Labour shortages bit harder than the permit pipeline suggested.

Open calls live now

Forecast · Spanish property

Valencia short-term rental licence restrictions tighten city-wide before Q4 2026

68%

stated probability

Published2026-05-14 · 09:42 UTC
Resolves by31 Dec 2026
SourceDOGV — Generalitat Valenciana official gazette

The Ciutat Vella moratorium is polling well and three more district associations have filed formal pressure campaigns. The council has signalled an ordinance review for autumn.

Forecast · Spanish property

Average Valencia city asking rents exceed €14.50/m² by Q1 2027

59%

stated probability

Published2026-04-28 · 11:05 UTC
Resolves by31 Mar 2027
SourceIdealista quarterly rental report

Supply keeps thinning as owners rotate units to mid-term contracts. The counterweight is the new build-to-rent stock arriving in Quatre Carreres.

Forecast · Spanish property

German and Nordic buyers exceed 22% of Costa Blanca purchases in 2026

66%

stated probability

Published2026-03-19 · 08:17 UTC
Resolves by28 Feb 2027
SourceSpanish notarial statistics (CGN), annual foreign-buyer series

Registry data through February shows the northern-European share accelerating past last year’s pace, and two Düsseldorf brokerages just opened Alicante desks.

Forecast · Spanish property

Subscribers

Touristic-licence moratorium extends to Cabanyal before mid-2027

stated probability

2026-05-30 · 10:11 UTC

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Forecast · Spanish property

Subscribers

A major Valencia build-to-rent operator exits the market in 2026

stated probability

2026-05-22 · 15:48 UTC

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The full ledger

every public forecast · newest first

2026

2026-05-14Valencia short-term rental licence restrictions tighten city-wide before Q4 202668%open
2026-04-28Average Valencia city asking rents exceed €14.50/m² by Q1 202759%open
2026-03-19German and Nordic buyers exceed 22% of Costa Blanca purchases in 202666%open

2025

2025-12-30Benidorm new tourist licence issuance falls more than 13% in 202686%✓ right
2025-12-08Valencia city asking rents rise more than 7% YoY by Q2 202675%✓ right
2025-11-04El Carmen median €/m² exceeds its 2026 peak by Q4 202629%✓ right
2025-10-31Valencia province mortgage approvals fall more than 10% YoY in Q4 202678%✓ right
2025-10-14Malvarrosa seafront asking prices outperform city average by 10pp in 202663%✓ right
2025-10-13Castellón coastal stock under €2,000/m² shrinks by more than 6% in 202663%✓ right
2025-10-08Foreign buyers exceed 40% of Valencia province transactions in 202658%✗ wrong
2025-09-29A rental price cap proposal reaches the Valencian regional parliament before Q1 202637%✓ right
2025-08-23Alicante airport passenger volume sets a record in 2026, lifting rental demand73%✓ right
2025-08-21Patraix flips: median time-on-market drops below 20 days by Q3 202586%✓ right
2025-08-15IBI property tax rates rise in at least 4 of Valencia’s 10 largest municipalities for 202585%✓ right
2025-08-09Bank-owned portfolio sales in the Valencia region exceed 7,000 units in 202654%✗ wrong
2025-07-29El Carmen median €/m² exceeds its 2025 peak by Q3 202567%✓ right
2025-05-31Malvarrosa seafront asking prices outperform city average by 5pp in 202572%✓ right
2025-05-28Benidorm new tourist licence issuance falls more than 7% in 202556%✗ wrong
2025-05-07Valencia city asking rents rise more than 4% YoY by Q3 202583%✗ wrong
2025-04-15Ruzafa median asking prices rise more than 10% YoY by Q1 202674%✓ right
2025-04-11A rental price cap proposal reaches the Valencian regional parliament before Q2 202567%✓ right
2025-04-05Bank-owned portfolio sales in the Valencia region exceed 9,000 units in 202558%✗ wrong
2025-04-05Foreign buyers exceed 60% of Valencia province transactions in 202572%✓ right
2025-03-17Valencia province mortgage approvals fall more than 17% YoY in Q4 202556%✓ right
2025-03-02Patraix flips: median time-on-market drops below 20 days by Q4 202567%✗ wrong
2025-02-18Castellón coastal stock under €2,000/m² shrinks by more than 13% in 202533%✓ right
2025-02-11Valencia city asking rents rise more than 13% YoY by Q2 202562%✓ right
2025-01-29New-build completions in Valencia province exceed 9,000 units in 202563%✗ wrong
2025-01-24Alicante airport passenger volume sets a record in 2025, lifting rental demand86%✓ right
2025-01-23El Carmen median €/m² exceeds its 2025 peak by Q2 202577%✓ right

2024

2024-12-11Foreign buyers exceed 50% of Valencia province transactions in 202527%✓ right
2024-12-11Malvarrosa seafront asking prices outperform city average by 12pp in 202575%✗ wrong
2024-12-06Valencia province mortgage approvals fall more than 10% YoY in Q4 202554%✓ right
2024-11-28IBI property tax rates rise in at least 6 of Valencia’s 10 largest municipalities for 202562%✗ wrong
2024-11-07Valencia tightens short-term rental licences in Ciutat Vella before Q3 202568%✓ right
2024-10-23Benidorm new tourist licence issuance falls more than 16% in 202558%✓ right
2024-09-20Alicante rental yields compress below 5.5% by mid-202571%✗ wrong
2024-09-19Castellón coastal stock under €2,000/m² shrinks by more than 11% in 202552%✓ right
2024-08-29Bank-owned portfolio sales in the Valencia region exceed 8,000 units in 202566%✓ right
2024-08-08IBI property tax rates rise in at least 6 of Valencia’s 10 largest municipalities for 202430%✓ right
2024-08-08A rental price cap proposal reaches the Valencian regional parliament before Q1 202569%✗ wrong
2024-07-26Patraix flips: median time-on-market drops below 20 days by Q1 202460%✓ right
2024-07-24Alicante airport passenger volume sets a record in 2025, lifting rental demand56%✓ right
2024-07-21Valencia city asking rents rise more than 8% YoY by Q2 202431%✓ right
2024-06-16Foreign buyers exceed 60% of Valencia province transactions in 202430%✓ right
2024-05-31Valencia province mortgage approvals fall more than 8% YoY in Q2 202431%✓ right
2024-05-09El Carmen median €/m² exceeds its 2024 peak by Q4 202458%✓ right
2024-04-16A rental price cap proposal reaches the Valencian regional parliament before Q1 202469%✗ wrong
2024-04-05Malvarrosa seafront asking prices outperform city average by 17pp in 202456%✗ wrong
2024-04-02Benidorm new tourist licence issuance falls more than 12% in 202474%✓ right

Research & education — not personalized investment advice. Product preview: this expert and their record are illustrative sample data.