Grain & Black Sea Flows · Agriculture · Global
I trade and analyse the global grain balance — Black Sea logistics, South American harvests, and the basis trades between them. Subscribers are farmers, traders, and food companies who need the flow read before the USDA print.
70%
directional accuracy
46
resolved
3
open
0.191
brier
“Reads logistics better than weather — trust the flow calls more than the yield calls.”
Open calls · live
Probability
62%
Deadline
30 SEP 2026
Source
Refinitiv shipping data
Corridor flows have normalised faster than the risk premium implies; the swing factor is insurance.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Sep 2026
anchored · 0x8471…02aeProbability
57%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
CBOT settlement
A weather scare is the catalyst; the balance sheet alone doesn’t get there.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x8171…011bProbability
••
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Freight + sector press
The route and the hedge — subscriber note.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0x8271…ff88Members see the full call
Resolved examples
Probability
71%
Deadline
31 JAN 2026
Source
CONAB / customs data
Logistics and acreage both pointed up; called it early.
Brier 0.08 · logged 15 Sep 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0x8571…0767Probability
60%
Deadline
31 JAN 2026
Source
CBOT settlement
Topped near $7.10 — I overpriced the weather risk that never showed.
Brier 0.36 · logged 17 Sep 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0x8b71…f7a9Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.