Mark Whitfield✓ identity verified

Oil Tanker Rates

Global · VLCC · Red Sea · crude flows

Two decades on tanker desks in London and Singapore. I forecast day rates, routing risk, and the crude flows underneath them. My subscribers are charterers, traders, and funds — my track record is the pitch.

  • · Ex-head of tanker research, London shipbroker
  • · FICS, Institute of Chartered Shipbrokers
  • · 61 resolved calls on the record here

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verified since 05 Nov 2024

#1 of 9 in Energy & shipping

⚠ conflicts disclosed (2)
  • — Consults for one tanker owner (no rate-sensitive disclosures shared)
  • — No personal positions in freight derivatives

The record

computed from 66 timestamped forecasts

75%

directional accuracy

0.185

mean brier score

61

resolved · 46 correct

5

open forecasts

Calibration — claimed vs happened

claimed happened
20–50%
25%n=12
60–70%
67%n=12
70–80%
73%n=15
80–90%
86%n=14
90%+
75%n=8

“Excellent overall, but treat his 90%+ calls as ~75% — the table shows the overconfidence and he owns it.”

Biggest wins, biggest misses.

Both stay on the record forever. Honesty is the product.

Forecast · Energy & shipping

Correct

VLCC TD3C spot rates exceed $55,000/day before December 2025

73%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.073

Published2025-05-22 · 07:02 UTC
Resolves by15 Dec 2025
SourceBaltic Exchange TD3C assessment

Printed $61k in November. Tonne-mile demand did the work — the fleet simply isn’t growing.

Forecast · Energy & shipping

Correct

Red Sea transits stay more than 40% below the 2023 baseline through H1 2025

84%

stated probability

outcome: YES

brier 0.026

Published2024-11-28 · 08:46 UTC
Resolves by30 Jun 2025
SourceLloyd’s List Intelligence transit counts

High conviction, correctly held. War-risk premium economics made early normalisation a fantasy.

Forecast · Energy & shipping

Missed

OPEC+ extends production cuts through Q2 2026

91%

stated probability

outcome: NO

brier 0.828

Published2025-09-30 · 06:55 UTC
Resolves by31 Mar 2026
SourceOPEC secretariat communiqué

My worst miss of the year. 91% and wrong — the quota unwind came two quarters early. My 90%+ bucket keeps telling me the same story: I should cap at 85%.

Forecast · Energy & shipping

Missed

Brent settles above $85 before 2025-06-30

64%

stated probability

outcome: NO

brier 0.410

Published2025-01-16 · 07:33 UTC
Resolves by30 Jun 2025
SourceICE Brent settlement

Topped out at $83.70. Directionally right on tightness, wrong on magnitude — demand revisions ate the rally.

Open calls live now

Forecast · Energy & shipping

VLCC TD3C spot rates exceed $65,000/day before 2026-09-30

57%

stated probability

Published2026-05-29 · 06:48 UTC
Resolves by30 Sep 2026
SourceBaltic Exchange TD3C assessment

Fleet growth is near zero, OPEC+ barrels are coming back, and Atlantic-basin exports keep stretching tonne-miles. The bear case is a demand wobble in Asia.

Forecast · Energy & shipping

Red Sea container transits recover above 70% of 2023 baseline by Q2 2027

38%

stated probability

Published2026-05-07 · 07:15 UTC
Resolves by30 Jun 2027
SourceLloyd’s List Intelligence transit counts

Insurers reprice slower than headlines. Even in a de-escalation scenario, war-risk premiums keep the Cape routing sticky well into 2027.

Forecast · Energy & shipping

ICE Brent settles above $90 before 2026-12-31

42%

stated probability

Published2026-04-21 · 09:03 UTC
Resolves by31 Dec 2026
SourceICE Brent settlement

Below consensus on this one. Spare capacity is real and demand growth keeps disappointing — $90 needs a supply shock, not a trend.

Forecast · Energy & shipping

Subscribers

Suezmax–VLCC day-rate spread narrows below $8,000 in Q4 2026

stated probability

2026-06-03 · 06:21 UTC

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Forecast · Energy & shipping

Subscribers

A top-5 tanker owner orders more than 10 VLCCs in 2026

stated probability

2026-05-15 · 08:39 UTC

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The full ledger

every public forecast · newest first

2026

2026-05-29VLCC TD3C spot rates exceed $65,000/day before 2026-09-3057%open
2026-05-07Red Sea container transits recover above 70% of 2023 baseline by Q2 202738%open
2026-04-21ICE Brent settles above $90 before 2026-12-3142%open

2025

2025-12-20A major Middle East escalation closes Hormuz for any period in 202665%✗ wrong
2025-12-12TD3C VLCC spot rates average above $95,000/day in Q3 202620%✓ right
2025-11-19Global VLCC fleet utilisation exceeds 85% in Q2 202660%✗ wrong
2025-11-13Suezmax Atlantic-basin rates outperform Pacific by more than $8,000/day in Q2 202623%✗ wrong
2025-11-07US Gulf crude exports exceed 10 million bpd in any month of 202638%✓ right
2025-10-25VLCC scrapping exceeds 70 vessels in 202686%✓ right
2025-10-22Aframax Mediterranean rates spike more than 170% within a quarter in 202664%✓ right
2025-10-22Dark-fleet share of Russian crude liftings falls below 50% in 202687%✓ right
2025-10-09TMX startup pulls more than 600k bpd onto the Pacific VLCC trade by Q2 202671%✗ wrong
2025-09-30OPEC+ extends production cuts through Q2 202691%✗ wrong
2025-09-18China seaborne crude imports set a monthly record in 202673%✓ right
2025-09-01Bunker VLSFO Singapore averages above $550/tonne in Q3 202663%✓ right
2025-08-26Global VLCC fleet utilisation exceeds 45% in Q3 202581%✓ right
2025-08-17Newbuild VLCC orders exceed 70 vessels in 202666%✓ right
2025-07-23TD3C VLCC spot rates average above $45,000/day in Q2 202576%✓ right
2025-07-20US Gulf crude exports exceed 7 million bpd in any month of 202543%✓ right
2025-07-19Suezmax Atlantic-basin rates outperform Pacific by more than $7,000/day in Q1 202573%✓ right
2025-06-20Newbuild VLCC orders exceed 20 vessels in 202582%✓ right
2025-06-20China seaborne crude imports set a monthly record in 202584%✗ wrong
2025-05-23TD3C VLCC spot rates average above $95,000/day in Q1 202536%✗ wrong
2025-05-22VLCC TD3C spot rates exceed $55,000/day before December 202573%✓ right
2025-05-17Dark-fleet share of Russian crude liftings falls below 70% in 202522%✓ right
2025-05-07Bunker VLSFO Singapore averages above $650/tonne in Q3 202541%✓ right
2025-04-20A major Middle East escalation closes Hormuz for any period in 202577%✓ right
2025-04-12VLCC scrapping exceeds 70 vessels in 202571%✓ right
2025-04-09Aframax Mediterranean rates spike more than 40% within a quarter in 202560%✓ right
2025-03-31Suezmax Atlantic-basin rates outperform Pacific by more than $3,000/day in Q4 202566%✓ right
2025-03-30TMX startup pulls more than 500k bpd onto the Pacific VLCC trade by Q2 202576%✗ wrong
2025-03-20Global VLCC fleet utilisation exceeds 45% in Q4 202583%✗ wrong
2025-02-09US Gulf crude exports exceed 8 million bpd in any month of 202561%✓ right
2025-01-22Newbuild VLCC orders exceed 50 vessels in 202524%✓ right
2025-01-22Dark-fleet share of Russian crude liftings falls below 60% in 202584%✓ right
2025-01-16China seaborne crude imports set a monthly record in 202560%✓ right
2025-01-16Brent settles above $85 before 2025-06-3064%✗ wrong
2025-01-02TD3C VLCC spot rates average above $45,000/day in Q2 202592%✓ right

2024

2024-12-12A major Middle East escalation closes Hormuz for any period in 202585%✓ right
2024-12-10Aframax Mediterranean rates spike more than 70% within a quarter in 202536%✓ right
2024-12-04VLCC scrapping exceeds 70 vessels in 202561%✗ wrong
2024-12-04TMX startup pulls more than 700k bpd onto the Pacific VLCC trade by Q1 202590%✗ wrong
2024-12-03Bunker VLSFO Singapore averages above $550/tonne in Q4 202570%✓ right
2024-11-28Red Sea transits stay more than 40% below the 2023 baseline through H1 202584%✓ right
2024-11-17Suezmax Atlantic-basin rates outperform Pacific by more than $3,000/day in Q1 202572%✓ right
2024-10-16US Gulf crude exports exceed 5 million bpd in any month of 202591%✓ right
2024-09-23A major Middle East escalation closes Hormuz for any period in 202592%✓ right
2024-09-20Global VLCC fleet utilisation exceeds 85% in Q1 202572%✓ right
2024-09-05China seaborne crude imports set a monthly record in 202587%✓ right
2024-08-23Dark-fleet share of Russian crude liftings falls below 100% in 202596%✓ right
2024-08-20Aframax Mediterranean rates spike more than 170% within a quarter in 202541%✗ wrong
2024-08-15Newbuild VLCC orders exceed 70 vessels in 202472%✗ wrong
2024-08-06Bunker VLSFO Singapore averages above $650/tonne in Q1 202421%✓ right
2024-07-19Suezmax Atlantic-basin rates outperform Pacific by more than $7,000/day in Q1 202478%✗ wrong
2024-07-17VLCC scrapping exceeds 90 vessels in 202583%✓ right
2024-06-25A major Middle East escalation closes Hormuz for any period in 202488%✓ right
2024-06-24TD3C VLCC spot rates average above $55,000/day in Q4 202487%✓ right
2024-06-13Dark-fleet share of Russian crude liftings falls below 60% in 202473%✓ right
2024-05-27TMX startup pulls more than 500k bpd onto the Pacific VLCC trade by Q3 202491%✓ right
2024-05-20China seaborne crude imports set a monthly record in 202484%✓ right
2024-05-12US Gulf crude exports exceed 2 million bpd in any month of 202435%✓ right
2024-05-07Global VLCC fleet utilisation exceeds 105% in Q1 202478%✓ right
2024-04-28Aframax Mediterranean rates spike more than 140% within a quarter in 202492%✓ right
2024-04-09VLCC scrapping exceeds 90 vessels in 202467%✓ right

Research & education — not personalized investment advice. Product preview: this expert and their record are illustrative sample data.