AI & Compute Markets · Technology · Global
I track the compute supply chain end to end — GPU allocation, HBM supply, datacenter power, and the unit economics of frontier models. Ten years in semis and cloud infrastructure. The signal here is upstream of the headlines.
65%
directional accuracy
52
resolved
3
open
0.213
brier
“Excellent on supply, noisier on demand timing — his sub-60% calls are where the real edge is.”
Open calls · live
Probability
58%
Deadline
30 SEP 2026
Source
Cloud GPU price trackers
New supply plus inference efficiency is loosening the squeeze, but power and HBM still gate the floor.
Awaiting source · resolves by 30 Sep 2026
anchored · 0xbbb3…cd16Probability
71%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
TrendForce / earnings calls
Packaging and HBM3E capacity lag wafer starts; this is the bottleneck the Street keeps under-weighting.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0xbcb3…cb83Probability
••
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Company announcements
Who, where, and the power-procurement tell — subscriber note.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0xbdb3…c9f0Members see the full call
Resolved examples
Probability
64%
Deadline
31 JAN 2026
Source
SemiAnalysis estimates
Called the crossover two quarters before consensus; deployment caught up to capability.
Brier 0.13 · logged 08 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xb8b3…d1cfProbability
62%
Deadline
30 JUN 2025
Source
Channel checks
Wrong — allocation politics kept effective lead times long even as nominal supply rose.
Brier 0.38 · logged 10 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xb2b3…db41Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.