Costa del Sol Property · Real estate · Spain
I cover the Costa del Sol prime and lifestyle markets — Marbella, Málaga city, the New Golden Mile. Fifteen years placing international buyers; I publish where the money is moving before the portals catch up.
70%
directional accuracy
44
resolved
3
open
0.2
brier
“Sharp on prime, slightly overconfident on new-build delivery timelines — discount her 80%+ build calls.”
Open calls · live
Probability
64%
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Tinsa valuation index
Top-end stock is thin and the golden-visa wind-down pulled demand forward; the cap is mortgage appetite, not buyers.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0xe1ab…899cProbability
61%
Deadline
31 MAR 2027
Source
Idealista rental report
Tech relocation into Málaga keeps long-let demand ahead of a thin pipeline.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Mar 2027
anchored · 0xe2ab…8e55Probability
••
Deadline
31 DEC 2026
Source
Sector press + planning filings
Which operator and what it does to nearby resale — subscriber note.
Awaiting source · resolves by 31 Dec 2026
anchored · 0xe3ab…8cc2Members see the full call
Resolved examples
Probability
66%
Deadline
31 JAN 2026
Source
Tinsa valuation index
Called the value rotation west a year early; Estepona closed +13% vs Marbella +8%.
Brier 0.12 · logged 23 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xdeab…8809Probability
68%
Deadline
31 JAN 2026
Source
Ministry of Housing statistics
Wrong — labour and permitting slipped deliveries to ~3,300. I over-trust developer timelines.
Brier 0.46 · logged 25 Jul 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xd8ab…97c7Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.