Football Transfer Insider · Sports · Europe
I price transfer probabilities across Europe’s top-5 leagues — done-deal likelihoods, fees, and timing — sourced from agents, club contacts, and the money trail. Faster and more honest than the rumour mills.
79%
directional accuracy
70
resolved
3
open
0.171
brier
“High-frequency and well calibrated — a knowable domain done rigorously; his 80% calls genuinely land ~80%.”
Open calls · live
Probability
74%
Deadline
01 SEP 2026
Source
Official club announcements
The money and the agent chatter both point to at least one marquee move clearing.
Awaiting source · resolves by 01 Sep 2026
anchored · 0xc060…8dbeProbability
69%
Deadline
15 JUL 2026
Source
Club announcements
Terms are agreed; it’s down to medical and timing.
Awaiting source · resolves by 15 Jul 2026
anchored · 0xbd60…8c2bProbability
••
Deadline
01 SEP 2026
Source
Deal-sheet filings
Which player and which buyer — subscriber call.
Awaiting source · resolves by 01 Sep 2026
anchored · 0xbe60…8a98Members see the full call
Resolved examples
Probability
82%
Deadline
20 AUG 2025
Source
Official announcement
Called the done deal before the tier-1 accounts posted it.
Brier 0.03 · logged 09 Feb 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xc160…9277Probability
66%
Deadline
31 MAY 2025
Source
League registration records
Appearance threshold missed by two games — wrong on the timing.
Brier 0.44 · logged 11 Feb 2026 · immutable
anchored · 0xb760…82b9Research and education only. Profile content, forecasts, membership state, and pricing are sample preview data; no payment flow or regulated market product is active here.